The story of this market
The typical home in Caldwell County, Texas sells for about $335,000, or $205 per square foot.
Prices are down 4.3% from a year ago, which gives buyers more room to negotiate. Homes take about 78 days to sell, which is slow. Over the long run, values in this county have grown 216% since 2000. Last year 2 of 5 neighborhoods saw prices rise, so the story isn't the same street to street. HUD's fair market rent for a two-bedroom is $1,817 a month.
HUD sets the fair market rent for a 2-bedroom at $1,817 a month. FEMA's National Risk Index rates overall hazard risk here as Relatively Moderate.
Price climate
Every year of price change, 2000–2025
0%
2025
Each stripe is one year's median price change across the area's census tracts (FHFA repeat-sales index). Deep blue is a strong gain year, red a falling year. Best: 2021 (+21.5%). Worst: 2010 (-5.1%). Hover to read a year.
Monthly price momentum
Home values since 2015
+1.1%
TX · past 12 months
Freddie Mac House Price Index, single-family homes, monthly through 2026-08. Each line starts at 100 in January 2015, so a reading of 180 means prices are up 80% since then.
Rent benchmark
Fair market rent by size
$2,292
3-bed / month
HUD Fair Market Rents, fiscal 2027, for this county. A typical rent for a modest unit, used to set housing-voucher payments.
Neighborhood price trend
Long-run price trend, 2000–2025
0%
2025 change
FHFA repeat-sales index, median of 5 census tracts in this county (2000 = 100). Bars are each year's median change.
Natural hazard exposure
The area's risk shape
83
Relatively Moderate
FEMA National Risk Index. Each spoke is a hazard ranked nationally, where 100 is the most exposed. Expected annual loss: $33,047,174.
Mortgage activity
Home lending in this county
67.3%
2018 approval rate
| Year | Applications | Loans made | Approval | Investor share | Median home value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1419 | 620 | 67.3% | 5.5% | $205,000 |
CFPB Home Mortgage Disclosure Act records: every mortgage application reported by lenders for homes in this county. Approval rate is approved ÷ decided (withdrawn and incomplete files excluded). Investor share and home value are the median census tract.
Caldwell County, Texas
The Caldwell County housing market is experiencing a cooling phase as higher interest rates and increased inventory levels temper the rapid price appreciation seen in previous years. While demand remains supported by the broader Austin metro growth, buyers are increasingly selective, leading to longer days on market and a higher frequency of price adjustments.
No ARED distress-ledger coverage for this county yet — the foreclosure ingest rotates the national county directory, and filings appear here once the county's posted notices are read. Key-figure check: median price diverges 28.6% from the nearest retained anchor (published ten-year series (2025)) — beyond the 12.5% tolerance; an automated validation case is open and the value publishes pending its verdict.
Select a city to expand its ZIP intel reports beneath · 8 cities · 8 ZIP reports
Median prices moved down 0.1% year over year.
Homes spend a median of 50 days on market with 0.0 months of supply — a fast-moving market.
0% of listings have cut prices · homes sell at 0.29% of asking — demand is holding steady.
no recorded foreclosure-ledger notices (0.0 per 10,000 residents) · unemployment 4.1% · poverty 11.2% — a stable, low-distress profile.
Deterministic aggregate of 5 researched ZIP reports of 8 — sales_count-weighted (population fallback); per point, children lacking the value or its weight are excluded. Tax rates, sentiment and context notes are tier-native and never roll.
Caldwell County, Texas — researched county-level history with a deterministic 1 / 3 / 5-year projection
Solid: researched ten-year history · dotted: 1 / 3 / 5-year projection extended from the historical 10.8%/yr trend — a deterministic estimate, not a published forecast or guarantee.
No researched properties in this county yet — the property base layer populates as property research runs, and each property feeds its ZIP's roll-up.
researched Oct 1
researched Oct 1
researched Oct 1
researched Sep 15
researched Oct 1
researched Sep 18
researched Sep 18
researched Sep 19
| 78616 | Mustang Ridge | $320,000 | $1,748 | — | 50 | — | — | — | 3,607 | $1,362 | researched Oct 1 |
| 78640 | Uhland | $300,000 | $175 | -4.8% | 68 | 97.5% | 22% | 4.2 | 450 | $1,950 | researched Oct 1 |
| 78644 | Lockhart | $241,000 | $149 | -19.6% | 55 | — | — | — | 349 | $1,817 | researched Oct 1 |
| 78648 | Luling | $217,400 | $164 | +2.1% | 80 | 97.5% | 14.4% | 5.2 | 180 | $1,038 | researched Sep 15 |
| 78655 | Martindale | $294,000 | $258 | +4.2% | 84 | 96.5% | 12% | 5.2 | 42 | $2,150 | researched Oct 1 |
| 78656 | Uhland | $235,000 | $145 | -8.8% | 27 | 98% | 15% | 6.2 | 241 | $1,629 | researched Sep 18 |
| 78661 | Prairie Lea | $190,200 | $145 | +2.1% | 85 | 96% | 15% | 6 | 12 | $1,450 | researched Sep 18 |
| 78662 | Lockhart | $549,900 | $285 | -2.4% | 92 | 96.5% | 12% | 4.6 | 65 | $1,850 | researched Sep 19 |
Figures are each ZIP report's own latest research — the county roll-up aggregates them sales_count-weighted (population fallback); ZIPs cycle quarterly.
Caldwell County reports crime rates generally lower than the more urbanized Austin-Round Rock metro core, though property crime remains the primary concern in unincorporated areas. Local law enforcement focuses on community policing to manage growth-related pressures.
Schools in Caldwell County are primarily served by Lockhart ISD and Luling ISD, which are characterized by improving academic performance and significant investment in new facilities to accommodate rapid student population growth.
The county faces moderate flood risks along the San Marcos River basin and increasing wildfire risk during prolonged drought conditions. Insurance premiums have trended upward due to regional weather volatility and rising replacement costs.
Economic momentum is driven by the expansion of the Austin metro area, with significant industrial and logistics development occurring along the SH 130 corridor. Major employers include local school districts, manufacturing firms, and the growing retail sector in Lockhart.
Composed from the ARED governance burden registry — tier-native tax structure (state + county + city + special districts), never averaged. State (Texas) — Senior (65+) and Disabled Homestead Exemption and School Tax Ceiling: Grants an additional mandatory $10,000 exemption from ISD appraised value (Taxable Value_ISD = Appraised Value - $100,000 - $10,000) and establishes an absolute statutory tax freeze (school tax ceiling): total ISD property taxes cannot exceed the dollar ceiling established in the… State (Texas) — General Residence Homestead Exemption and 10% Valuation Growth Cap: Imposes mandatory state-level valuation deductions and growth limitations on the qualifying homestead: (1) Mandates a $100,000 deduction from appraised value for independent school district (ISD) maintenance and operations/debt taxation: Taxable Value_ISD = Appraised Value - $100… State (Texas) — Ad Valorem Real Property Taxation and Assessment Ratio: Mandates ad valorem appraisal of all real property at 100% of fair market value as of January 1 each tax year (Assessment Ratio = 1.00).
The economy is transitioning from a traditional agricultural base to a mix of manufacturing, logistics, and service-sector employment supported by the Austin metro expansion.
The county is bisected by SH 130 and US 183, providing critical north-south connectivity to the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and the broader Central Texas region.
The Caldwell County Appraisal District performs annual mass appraisals to determine market value for ad valorem tax purposes, adhering to Texas Property Tax Code standards.
The county is served by various special districts including emergency services districts (ESDs) and municipal utility districts (MUDs) in newer residential developments.
Property insurance markets are tightening across the county, with carriers increasing premiums and deductibles in response to regional hail and wind damage claims.
- Schlitterbahn Waterpark New Braunfels4.328.8 mi
- Urban Air Trampoline and Adventure Park3.928.7 mi
- Texas Tubes4.629 mi
- Santa's Ranch Drive Thru Christmas Light Park4.621.6 mi
- Wonder World Cave & Adventure Park4.618.9 mi
- Circuit of The Americas4.623.3 mi
- Meanwhile Brewing4.828.7 mi
- Gruene Hall4.727.3 mi
- The Concourse Project4.526.5 mi
- EVO Entertainment + EVX + IMAX® - Kyle4.419.9 mi
- Rio Vista Park4.617.6 mi
- EVO Entertainment + EVX + IMAX® - Kyle4.419.9 mi
- Palmetto State Park4.715 mi
- Son's River Ranch4.48.2 mi
- EVO Entertainment - San Marcos4.317.2 mi
- The Dinosaur Park4.725.9 mi
- Cathedral of Junk4.529.9 mi
- McKenna Children's Museum4.829.4 mi
- Mesmerize4.529.3 mi
- Scream Hollow4.325.2 mi
- Rio Vista Park4.617.6 mi
- Palmetto State Park4.715 mi
- Lockhart State Park4.54.4 mi
- Meadows Center Glass-Bottom Boat Tours4.817.7 mi
- Sewell Park4.717.8 mi
- San Marcos Premium Outlets4.619.7 mi
- Tanger Outlets San Marcos4.519.9 mi
- Ross Dress for Less4.218.4 mi
- Marshalls4.318.3 mi
- Kyle Flea Market3.919 mi
- Austin-Bergstrom International Airport4.127.3 mi
Theme parks, venues, golf, airports, museums, water and shopping across the area from Google Maps, ranked by popularity within the radius shown.
The amenity base that shapes daily life and property demand in this county — what residents actually live with, and what the pipeline is adding.
Offers historic CCC-built facilities, a nine-hole golf course, and swimming, serving as a major recreational anchor for the county.
Known as the 'Barbecue Capital of Texas,' the square features historic architecture and nationally recognized dining destinations that drive tourism.
Provides opportunities for kayaking, tubing, and fishing, serving as a vital natural amenity for residents and visitors.
Data retrieved from data.census.gov; figures reflect county-wide averages.
Public schools whose reported address is in this area (NCES). Not attendance boundaries — schools that serve residents may sit outside it. Check the district's address locator for assignment.
applies when — Parcel is encumbered by a Texas constitutional home equity loan (HELOC or lump-sum equity loan).
Bars private power-of-sale foreclosure. Constitutional protections strictly require lenders to obtain a formal judicial or expedited quasi-judicial court order under Texas Rules of Civil Procedure 735 and 736 before initiating foreclosure proceedings against homestead residential property.
Tex. Const. art. XVI, Sec. 50(a)(6)(D); Tex. R. Civ. P. 735, 736.
applies when — Parcel is situated within a Municipal Utility District (MUD), Water Control and Improvement District (WCID), or other special taxing district created under Article XVI, Section 59 of the Texas Constitution.
Subject to supplemental ad valorem debt-service and maintenance tax levies imposed by the MUD board. Sellers are statutorily required to furnish an executed statutory district disclosure notice stating the district's authority to levy taxes, current tax rates, and total authorized bond indebtedness prior to contract execution. If notice is omitted, the buyer maintains statutory rights to terminate the transaction or sue for damages up to $5,000 plus costs.
Tex. Water Code Ann. Sec. 49.452.
applies when — Parcel is located within the unincorporated extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ) adjacent to an incorporated municipality (ranging from 0.5 to 5 miles depending on municipal population).
Subjects parcel subdivision and development to municipal platting authority, roadway access rules, and utility easements under Local Government Code Chapter 212, even though municipal zoning does not apply. In 2023, the state enacted a petition/referendum mechanism permitting landowners in an ETJ to unilaterally opt out and release their parcel from municipal ETJ regulation.
Tex. Loc. Gov't Code Ann. Chapters 42, 212, and Chapter 247 (enacted by Texas Senate Bill 2038, effective September 1, 2023).
applies when — Parcel is subject to mandatory membership in a property owners' association under recorded restrictive covenants.
Obligates the seller to provide a formal statutory disclosure notice to the prospective purchaser before contract execution detailing mandatory HOA membership, obligations to pay regular assessments, association restrictive covenants, and the prospect of lien foreclosure for delinquency. Failure to deliver the notice enables the purchaser to terminate the contract prior to closing.
Tex. Prop. Code Ann. Sec. 5.012 and Sec. 207.003.
applies when — Parcel is subject to recorded dedicatory instruments, restrictive covenants, and mandatory membership in a property owners' association (POA/HOA).
Imposes statutory covenants and restrictions on parcel encumbrance and enforcement: association must file management certificates with county clerk and TREC; requires an expedited judicial court order under Tex. R. Civ. P. 736 to foreclose an assessment lien; bars non-judicial foreclosure for purely fine-based or attorney fee liens; guarantees the property owner a 180-day statutory post-foreclosure right of redemption; establishes statutory owner protections preventing POAs from banning solar panels, religious displays, security measures, or rain-harvesting barrels.
Tex. Prop. Code Ann. Chapter 209 (amended extensively under SB 1588 effective September 1, 2021).
applies when — Ad valorem real property taxes assessed by local taxing entities become delinquent under Chapter 33.
Authorizes local taxing entities to seize and judicially foreclose on the parcel to satisfy accrued tax debt, interest, and administrative penalties. Grants former owners an absolute post-sale statutory right of redemption: (1) 2-year redemption window for residence homesteads and ag-exempt land with redemption costs equal to purchase price plus a 25% premium in year 1 or a 50% premium in year 2; (2) 180-day redemption window for non-homestead residential parcels with a 25% premium.
Tex. Tax Code Ann. Chapters 33 and 34 (specifically Sec. 34.21).
applies when — Real property parcel secured by a deed of trust or contract lien containing an express power-of-sale clause upon borrower default (conventional mortgages).
Permits private non-judicial foreclosure without court intervention. Imposes strict statutory procedural timeline: minimum 20-day written notice of default and intent to accelerate with right to cure, followed by minimum 21-day public notice of sale (recorded with county clerk, posted at courthouse, and served on debtor via certified mail). Foreclosure sales must occur on the first Tuesday of the month between 10:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. at the designated county venue. Under Texas law, conventional mortgage non-judicial foreclosure conveys permanent title without any post-sale statutory right of redemption for the mortgagor.
Tex. Prop. Code Ann. Sec. 51.002.
Statutorily compels sellers to affirmatively disclose whether the property is located wholly or partly in a 100-year floodplain, 500-year floodplain, floodway, flood pool, or reservoir; whether the parcel has ever experienced flooding or water penetration into structures during a natural event; and whether the seller currently maintains flood insurance coverage.
Tex. Prop. Code Ann. Sec. 5.008(b), amended by Texas Senate Bill 339 following Hurricane Harvey (effective September 1, 2019).
Obligates the seller to deliver an executed comprehensive written disclosure notice to the purchaser before entering into an executory contract. Failure to deliver the disclosure gives the buyer a statutory, unconditional right to terminate the purchase contract for any reason within seven days after receiving the notice or before closing, whichever occurs first.
Tex. Prop. Code Ann. Sec. 5.008.
applies when — Homestead parcel is owned and occupied by an individual aged 65 or older or an individual who qualifies as disabled under federal guidelines.
Grants an additional mandatory $10,000 exemption from ISD appraised value (Taxable Value_ISD = Appraised Value - $100,000 - $10,000) and establishes an absolute statutory tax freeze (school tax ceiling): total ISD property taxes cannot exceed the dollar ceiling established in the first qualifying year, unless new improvements or additions are made to the parcel.
Tex. Tax Code Ann. Sec. 11.13(c) and Sec. 11.26.
applies when — The residential structure and land (up to 20 acres) are owned and occupied as the owner's principal residence as of the qualification date.
Imposes mandatory state-level valuation deductions and growth limitations on the qualifying homestead: (1) Mandates a $100,000 deduction from appraised value for independent school district (ISD) maintenance and operations/debt taxation: Taxable Value_ISD = Appraised Value - $100,000; (2) Grants optional local-option percentage deductions (up to 20% of appraised value, minimum $5,000) for cities and counties: Taxable Value_Local = Appraised Value - Max(0.20 * Appraised Value, $5,000); (3) Caps annual homestead appraised value increases at 10% plus the value of new improvements: Appraised Value_t <= (1.10 * Appraised Value_{t-1}) + Value_NewImprovements.
Tex. Tax Code Ann. Sec. 11.13 and Sec. 23.23. The ISD exemption was expanded to $100,000 via constitutional amendment (Proposition 4) effective for tax years beginning on or after January 1, 2023.
Mandates ad valorem appraisal of all real property at 100% of fair market value as of January 1 each tax year (Assessment Ratio = 1.00). Tax liability formula: Total Tax = SUM[(Appraised Value - Applicable Exemptions) * (Local Taxing Unit Adopted Rate / 100)] across all overlapping taxing units (independent school district, county, municipality, special districts). Establishes a statutory administrative protest and appeal process before the County Appraisal Review Board (ARB).
Tex. Tax Code Ann. Title 1, Subtitles A-D (specifically Sec. 23.01 and Sec. 26.01 et seq.). Annual appraisal cycle effective January 1.
Governance registry — every jurisdiction re-researches on a rolling 90-day cycle. Property reports compose these inherited burdens into a per-parcel ledger with conditional determinations. Informational only — not legal advice.